FTUB Daily News for Nov-28-2011, English News - Evening

News Headlines with Brief (1) Bangladeshi PM in push for Burma gas | Source: DVB 28-Nov-2011 Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina is due to travel toBurmaearly next month amid speculation that her country’s desire for gas imports from its neighbour to the east will dominate talks. Bangladeshi cabinet ministers were in Naypyidaw last week for preparatory discussions prior to the 5-7 December visit by Hasina, her first toBurmasince coming to office in 2008. Read More..... (2) China and Burma reaffirm strained ties | Source: DVB 28-Nov-2011 China’s leader-in-waiting Xi Jinping met Burma’s military chief on Monday and pledged stronger ties, days before US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton starts a historic trip to the closed state. Clinton will become the most senior US official to visit Burma in more than 50 years on Wednesday when she arrives on a trip seen as a bid to advance US priorities in a country that has long enjoyed close ties to China. Read More..... (3) Musicians band together for Suu Kyi’s party | Source: DVB 28-Nov-2011 Musicians gathered at the Rangoon lakeside home of Aung San Suu Kyi last week to pitch ideas for an album that her party will launch next month to galvanise support for them in the upcoming by-elections. The nearly 50 artists met on Friday last week, the same day the National League for Democracy (NLD) submitted its application to register as a political party. Kyi Toe, a member of the party’s information wing, told DVB that the brainstorming session would be the first of several before the album is released in December. Read More..... (4) Clinton seeks ally on China’s doorstep | Source: DVB 28-Nov-2011 US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton heads this week on a historic visit to Burma that aims not only to pry open the closed nation but to shake up the battle for global influence right on China’s doorstep. Clinton on Wednesday will become the top US official to visit the nation in more than 50 years as she tests the waters after dramatic — but tentative — reforms by the military-backed government. Read More..... (5) Burma Riven by Graft, Ethnic Conflicts | Source: Irrawaddy 28-Nov-2011 When U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton visits Burma this week, she'll see a country that has made some progress toward democracy, but has even farther to go to fix the corrupt economy and ethnic conflicts that stem from decades of military rule. After holding elections last November, Burma has begun to release political prisoners and work with opposition leader and Nobel Peace Prize laureate Aung San Suu Kyi. That has earned political rewards, such as Clinton's visit starting late Wednesday, the first by the top U.S. diplomat in 56 years. Read More..... (6) Foreign-based dissident organizations reorganizing their missions | Source: Mizzima 28-Nov-2011 In response to the National League for Democracy’s (NLD) decision to re-register as a political party, many dissident organizations in foreign countries are reassessing their strategies and redefining their missions. Among the organizations are the NLD – Liberated Area; the National Coalition Government of the Union of Burma (NCGUB); Members of Parliament Union – Burma (MPU) and the National Council of the Union of Burma. Read More..... (7) NLD prepares to accept 1 million party members | Source: Mizzima 28-Nov-2011 Feeling its newfound strength in deciding to register and reorganize as a political party, the National League for Democracy [NLD] is preparing to accept 1 million party members. The NLD will begin distribution of application forms in a few days, said May Win Myint, one of the new founding members who signed the NLD re-registration application permit. Even former NLD members – including party leader Aung San Suu Kyi – will have to fill out and submit a new membership application form, May Win Myint told Mizzima. Read More..... (8) Burma: Arab Spring or Prague Spring? | Source: Shan 28-Nov-2011 Last October, the military-turned-civilian government bent its visa rules on blacklisted individuals and Harn Yawnghwe, head of the Brussels-based Euro Burma Office (EBO) that has been assisting activist groups struggling for democracy and ethnic rights was allowed to return to his home country after spending 48 years in exile. The trip coincided with a report by Financial Times on 25 November that had quoted him saying: “They have decided to change. It’s not what we called for, but there are changes. Even if they are pretending to change, we should push them so the change becomes irreversible. If we keep saying that ‘you haven’t change the way we want’ and put obstacles in the way, then the changes will never come.” Read More..... Bangladeshi PM in push for Burma gas http://www.dvb.no/news/bangladeshi-pm-in-push-for-gas-imports/18944 28-Nov-2011 Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina is due to travel toBurmaearly next month amid speculation that her country’s desire for gas imports from its neighbour to the east will dominate talks. Bangladeshi cabinet ministers were in Naypyidaw last week for preparatory discussions prior to the 5-7 December visit by Hasina, her first toBurmasince coming to office in 2008. Relations between the two countries have at times been frosty, with their shared border a matter contention. An arbitration over disputed maritime boundaries in the Bay of Bengal is also currently being considered by the International Tribunal for the Laws of the Sea (ITLOS) in Berlin, with a decision due in the middle of next year. Both issues are likely to arise next week. “Every subject of possible cooperation in all fields and removal of all disputes would be discussed between the two,” Hasina’s secretary, Abul Kalam Azad, told the Dhaka-based Financial Express, referring to her scheduled meeting with senior officials in Naypyidaw. The maritime complaint first submitted by Dhaka in 2009, and which is only just being heard, centred on a submersible drilling rig owned by US-Swiss firm TransOcean Inc, which the Bangladeshi’s claim illegally entered their waters with a Burmese navy escort in 2008. The incident led to a naval build-up by both countries, and according to leaked US diplomatic cables, prompted Bangladesh to ask for US help as the Burmese strengthened their military presence on the shared border. Bangladeshi military sources claim Dhaka has consequently attempted to match Burmese mobile artillery capabilities with the purchase of the Serbian Nora B-52 155 mm self-propelled howitzer, which with an approximate range of 45 kilometres could reach Burmese forces that have amassed around 30 kilometres from the border. Since Hasina’s Awami League victory in 2008, which brought to an end military rule in Bangladesh, she has been busy repairing bilateral relations with its neighbours, including Naypyidaw and New Delhi. Dhaka’s chief concern is securing energy resources for the country, which according to the Financial Express is short by around 200 MW. This was the driving force for the maritime boundary dispute, but it also now sees Dhaka looking for fresh imports as questions over the reserves in Bangladesh’s scarce oil and gas blocks have surfaced. Talks have allegedly been underway since May over the potential for Bangladesh to buy Burmese gas at market rates. Bangladesh may, as a result, build a power plant near to the border, which lies close to gas fields in Burma’s western Arakan state. This was mooted following a meeting between Bangladeshi commerce minister Faruk Kahn and U That Hta, Burma’s energy minister, on Friday last week in Naypyidaw. In addition, Dhaka has pushed for an increase in border trade. The Bangladeshis however are insistent that the Burmese repatriate the estimated 300,000 Rohingya refugees who inhabit Cox’s Bazaar, whom have sought asylum in the overpopulated country as a result of religious and racial persecution in their native northern Arakan state. The discrimination against Burma’s Muslim minority was affirmed by parliament in late August when the immigration minister said that “indigenous” Muslim voters would still need to obtain permits to travel because they had “shared common religion, culture, appearance and language” with Bangladeshi’s. The Burmese military build-up on the border has included the ongoing construction of a 350 kilometre electrified border fence and other alleged military infrastructure near the town of Ann. However there have been tentative signs that a normalisation of border relations could move forward with a new rail link between the two countries, for which construction began in early April China and Burma reaffirm strained ties http://www.dvb.no/news/china-and-burma-reaffirm-strained-ties/18948 28-Nov-2011 China’s leader-in-waiting Xi Jinping met Burma’s military chief on Monday and pledged stronger ties, days before US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton starts a historic trip to the closed state. Clinton will become the most senior US official to visit Burma in more than 50 years on Wednesday when she arrives on a trip seen as a bid to advance US priorities in a country that has long enjoyed close ties to China. Xi proposed that the nations’ militaries “enhance exchange and deepen cooperation” when he met the commander-in-chief of Burma’s armed forces, Min Aung Hlaing, in Beijing, the official Xinhua news agency said. “The friendship, forged by leaders of the older generations, has endured changes in the international arena,” Xinhua quoted Vice President Xi as saying. “China will work with Myanmar [Burma] to further bolster the comprehensive strategic partnership of cooperation,” added Xi, who is widely expected to take over from President Hu Jintao in 2013. Burma and China have long been close allies, although the relationship is complicated, with some in the Southeast Asian nation resentful over Beijing’s overwhelming economic influence and historic border conflicts. Burma — which since last year has held elections and freed democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi from house arrest — recently defied China by shutting down work on an unpopular dam that would supply power across the border. Experts say Clinton’s trip to Burma aims not only to test the waters after dramatic but tentative reforms in the country, but also to shake up the battle for global influence on China’s doorstep. It follows a tour of Pacific nations by US President Barack Obama aimed at reinforcing US influence in the region amid growing concerns about the rise of China. During his trip, Obama announced the stationing of US troops in Australia — a move Beijing said may not be “quite appropriate” — and also pushed ahead a trans-Pacific free trade agreement that for now excludes China. But US influence in Burma is likely to be limited. Washington bans virtually all trade with the country and any decision to end sanctions would need approval from Congress. Musicians band together for Suu Kyi’s party http://www.dvb.no/news/musicians-band-together-for-suu-kyi%E2%80%99s-party/18939 28-Nov-2011 Musicians gathered at the Rangoon lakeside home of Aung San Suu Kyi last week to pitch ideas for an album that her party will launch next month to galvanise support for them in the upcoming by-elections. The nearly 50 artists met on Friday last week, the same day the National League for Democracy (NLD) submitted its application to register as a political party. Kyi Toe, a member of the party’s information wing, told DVB that the brainstorming session would be the first of several before the album is released in December. Among those present were famed hip hop artists Yatha and Zayar Thaw – the latter is recognised as one of the early pioneers of the genre in Burma, and his veiled anti-government lyrics earned him a popular following, but also a three-year spell in prison. He was released in May this year. Burma’s election body, the Union Election Commission, accepted the NLD’s application and will now deliberate over whether to approve the party to campaign for the interim vote. With the Thein Sein administration looking to appease international critics and portray Burma as a country in transition, however, the opposition party’s registration is expected to be accepted. That would enable Suu Kyi, whose ban on running in the 2010 elections prompted the party’s boycott and subsequent dissolution, to contest one of 48 seats vacant in the military-dominated parliament. The NLD’s application included the names of 21 people billed as the “founders” of the reborn party, 11 of whom are women. One of them, Nan Khin Htway Myint from Karen state, said however that this did not automatically mean they had a role in policy making. The party will keep its traditional structure and hierarchy, from the Central Executive Committee comprised of the likes of veteran members Win Tin and Nyan Win, down to township-level coordinators. Nan Khin Htway Myint said however that new members would be accepted after the by-elections. Parliamentary speaker Shwe Mann said last week that the by-elections, which had originally been mooted for November, wouldn’t be held until early next year. According to Burmese law, the government needs to give three months’ noticed before the vote is held. Clinton seeks ally on China’s doorstep http://www.dvb.no/news/clinton-seeks-ally-on-chinas-doorstep/18932 28-Nov-2011 US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton heads this week on a historic visit to Burma that aims not only to pry open the closed nation but to shake up the battle for global influence right on China’s doorstep. Clinton on Wednesday will become the top US official to visit the nation in more than 50 years as she tests the waters after dramatic — but tentative — reforms by the military-backed government. Clinton is expected to meet both President Thein Sein and democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi. She has said she will press for greater progress on human rights and democracy, without offering any let-up in biting US sanctions. The United States has been careful not to raise expectations for a breakthrough. But Clinton’s visit carries unmistakable symbolism as it seeks to advance US priorities in one of the countries most closely aligned with China. Burma’s “strategic importance to the United States is closely connected to concerns about rising Chinese influence,” said John Ciorciari, an expert on Southeast Asia at the University of Michigan. “To Beijing, Burma offers the possibility of natural resources and warm-water ports on the Indian Ocean that could be crucial in expanding China’s naval reach,” he said. “Successful US engagement would lessen the likelihood of a strong Sino-Myanmar [Burma] alignment in years ahead.” Beijing has provided the main diplomatic cover for Burma’s leaders but the relationship is complicated, with some in the Southeast Asian nation resentful over China’s overwhelming economic influence and historic border conflicts. Burma recently defied China by shutting down work on an unpopular dam that would supply power across the border. Burma’s leaders, known for deep distrust of the outside world, have reached out in recent years to India, Southeast Asia nations and, now, the United States. For the United States, progress on Burma could help resolve a main stumbling block inside the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, giving new influence to the fast-growing — and mostly US-friendly — 10-nation bloc. A stronger ASEAN would allow “China to grow and be secure but not use its new economic might to force neighbors’ hands on issues related to sovereignty,” said Ernie Bower of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. US President Barack Obama’s administration, while saying it wants a cooperative relationship with a rising China, has recently gone on the offensive amid suspicions over Beijing’s intentions. Obama recently announced the stationing of US troops in Australia — a clear sign of US priorities at a time of tight budgets — and has pushed ahead a trans-Pacific free trade agreement that for now excludes China. Burma’s military seized power in 1962 but since last year has held elections, nominally handed power to civilians and freed Suu Kyi from house arrest. The new government has opened a dialogue with the opposition and ethnic minorities. While the United States and the opposition were at first cynical about the moves, Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy recently said it will re-enter mainstream politics. The party won 1990 elections but was never allowed to take power. Even the most upbeat US policymakers acknowledge that Washington’s influence is limited in a country so fearful of outside invasion that it suddenly moved its capital to the remote outpost of Naypyidaw in 2005. The United States bans virtually all trade with Burma and any decision to end sanctions would need approval from Congress, with which exile groups have worked closely for years to pressure the generals. Walter Lohman of the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think-tank that is often critical of the administration, welcomed Obama’s phone consultations with Suu Kyi before the decision on Clinton’s visit. “The fact that the president called and got her blessing and that they’re tying their policy to her makes it a very difficult decision to criticize,” Lohman said. But Lohman doubted how much further Burma would reform, suspecting that the leadership’s main interest was to ensure it will be the chair of ASEAN in 2014. “My guess is that the regime is calculating exactly how far it can go to get all of these things it is looking for without going too far to accommodate the political opposition,” Lohman said. Burma Riven by Graft, Ethnic Conflicts http://www.irrawaddy.org/article.php?art_id=22546 28-Nov-2011 When U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton visits Burma this week, she'll see a country that has made some progress toward democracy, but has even farther to go to fix the corrupt economy and ethnic conflicts that stem from decades of military rule. After holding elections last November, Burma has begun to release political prisoners and work with opposition leader and Nobel Peace Prize laureate Aung San Suu Kyi. That has earned political rewards, such as Clinton's visit starting late Wednesday, the first by the top U.S. diplomat in 56 years. But the new government, still dominated by the military, has scarcely begun to fix the mistakes made since the military took power in 1962, and fighting between the army and ethnic minorities who want more autonomy has intensified since the elections. While Burma's nascent political reforms hold promise, economic changes will be just as important to arrest the decline of what was once one of Southeast Asia's most prosperous countries but is now rated on a key U.N. index as the region's least developed. The military began opening the economy in the 1990s, after the 26-year socialist rule of the late dictator Ne Win, but the investment it has attracted has mostly been for its own benefit — including to build a remote and opulent new capital city where the government relocated to in 2005. Ne Win's eccentricities extended to issuing currency notes divisible by the supposedly auspicious number nine, and Burma retains a Byzantine exchange rate system. The official rate of the kyat currency is about 12,000 percent over market value. That has helped a kleptocracy to flourish. By using the official rate — which is largely ignored in day-to-day transactions — for accounting exports of natural gas and other resources, the government is believed to have underreported billions of dollars in revenues. In the past two years the government has accelerated its privatization of state enterprises and assets, but liberalization has not translated into a level playing field. Buyers of key holdings have been military-run corporations and government cronies. Transparency International, a Germany-based private group that campaigns against corruption, ranked Burma 176 out of 178 countries in its 2010 global index on graft — equal with Afghanistan and one place above last-place, lawless Somalia. In his inaugural speech in March, President Thein Sein promised tax and financial reforms to promote small and medium-size enterprises and to narrow the gap between rich and poor. There has been little substantive change so far, but a team of International Monetary Fund advisers visited in November to discuss plans to unify the exchange rate regime and lift restrictions on current international payments and transfers. A follow-up mission is expected early next year. Sean Turnell, an expert on Burma's economy at Macquarie University in Sydney, Australia, said adopting the market exchange rate as the sole rate would have profound implications for the country by making the foreign exchange earnings of state-owned enterprises transparent. "It is not just a technical issue, but could be seen as a fundamental reform of the country's political economy," he said. Implementing such reforms would be a complex business and would likely require support from international financial institutions, currently blocked by Western sanctions. But solving Burma's economic problems could pale next to the challenge of its ethnic conflicts. Minorities scattered around Burma's western, northern and eastern frontiers make up nearly one third of the 55 million people. Various splinter groups representing an array of ethnicities — the Karen, Shan, Kachin, Mon, Chin, Arakanese, Wa, Karenni, Paluang, Pa-O and Lahu — have all taken up arms at some point. Some of the rebellions have endured even longer than military rule. Some of the groups have reached cease-fires with the military, but none have won political power. Last year's elections offered a glimmer of hope. Burma now has local assemblies, and ethnic parties are represented in them and to a small degree in the federal parliament. But a ham-fisted attempt to get ethnic armies to become government-led border guards led to the collapse this year of long-standing cease-fires with two key groups, the Shan State Army-North and the Kachin Independence Army. The fighting has displaced tens of thousands of people. Clashes continue in Kachin State in the country's far north. That has compounded a humanitarian blight that has sent 140,000 minority refugees into neighboring Thailand since the 1980s and uprooted many more. Foreign-based dissident organizations reorganizing their missions http://www.mizzima.com/news/inside-burma/6226-foreign-based-dissident-organizations-reorganizing-their-missions.html Monday, 28 November 2011 13:14 Ko Wild Chiang Mai (Mizzima) – In response to the National League for Democracy’s (NLD) decision to re-register as a political party, many dissident organizations in foreign countries are reassessing their strategies and redefining their missions. Among the organizations are the NLD – Liberated Area; the National Coalition Government of the Union of Burma (NCGUB); Members of Parliament Union – Burma (MPU) and the National Council of the Union of Burma. The NCGUB includes five former MPs from the1990 general election and is led by Dr. Sein Win, the prime minister of the Burmese government in exile, who is Aung San Suu Kyi’s cousin. After a meeting last week, the NCGUB decided that the word “Government” in its name is no longer appropriate. Dr. Tint Swe, the information minister of the Burmese government in exile, told Mizzima, “If Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD legally enter parliamentary politics, ‘NCGUB’, the name of our organization, will not be appropriate anymore.” However, he said he still had reservations about the current government because a military government ruled Burma for so many years. The group would continue to fight for human rights, peace in ethnic areas and work for the freedom of political prisoners, he said. The NCGUB was formed in December 1990. Tint Swe said the Norwegian government supports the group and it will continue to support its involvement in Burmese politics. The MUP, formed 15 years ago, will continue in its current form, said Tint Swe who also serves as an MPU member. The MPU comprises 32 MPs elected in the never-honoured 1990 general election. One significant change, he said, is that “the demand to convene the parliament in accord with the results of 1990 general election does not exist anymore. But, the electoral results and the support of Burmese citizens will be milestones in our history.” The MPU MPs represented the National Democracy Party, from Chin, Shan, Arakan, Mon, Lahu, Zomi parties, and independent MPs. An official of the NLD-LA Foreign Affairs sub-committee said a central executive meeting last week decided to drop the name “NLD-LA” because it is tied to the 1990 general election. “The NLD-LA may be transformed into NLD groups based in foreign countries. Eight branches of NLD-LA now exists in the U.S., Japan, Australia, Canada, Malaysia, South Korea, Norway and England. The NLD-LA would work for reconciliation between the government and opposition groups, including ethnic armed groups, he said. “We helped to hold the dialogue between the Minister Aung Min and ethnic groups. NLD-LA will be involved in seeking national reconciliation and working for the development of the country,” he said. Both the NLD-LA and MPU, along with Democratic Alliance of Burma and the National Democratic Front, are member groups of the NCUB. Aung Moe Zaw, the NCUB joint secretary No.1 and chairman of the Democratic Party for New Society, said that whether the member groups will continue as members of the NCUB has yet to be decided. “The NCUB needs to review its activities and structure, I think. Meetings between chairmen and secretaries of member groups need to be conducted as soon as possible. Most of our activities are related to the results of 1990 general election so we need to review whether our activities are in line with the current situation,” Aung Moe Zaw said. The NCUB was formed in September 1992 and it incudes 26 pro-democracy organizations. NLD prepares to accept 1 million party members http://www.mizzima.com/news/inside-burma/6227-nld-prepares-to-accept-1-million-party-members.html Monday, 28 November 2011 13:23 Myo Thant Chiang Mai (Mizzima) – Feeling its newfound strength in deciding to register and reorganize as a political party, the National League for Democracy [NLD] is preparing to accept 1 million party members. The NLD will begin distribution of application forms in a few days, said May Win Myint, one of the new founding members who signed the NLD re-registration application permit. Even former NLD members – including party leader Aung San Suu Kyi – will have to fill out and submit a new membership application form, May Win Myint told Mizzima. Khin Moe Moe, another of the party’s new founders, said, “The membership form asks for an applicant’s age, education, race, religion and address.” Poet Nyein Thit, who volunteers for NLD social projects, said that ideally new members will want to become actively involved in NLD projects at all levels. “We don’t set specific qualifications: anyone who wants to become involved in pro-democracy issues – that quality will is enough to become a member,” Nyein Thit told Mizzima. Senior NLD members and new members will be treated equally. If new members have the right qualities, they can be NLD candidates and contest in the coming by-elections, said Nyan Win, the NLD spokesman. “Qualified activists, ethnic people and women will be given priority and the education of the candidate-to-be will also be considered in choosing candidates,” Nyan Win said. The NLD is preparing to form canvassing committees in states and regions, officials said. On Friday, Suu Kyi met with more than 50 musicians and singers at her lakeside home in Rangoon. The meeting was held to discuss songs and music for use in NLD canvassing in the coming by-election. A composer, Ye Lwin, told Mizzima that he planned to offer his help. “I’m not an NLD member,” he said. “But, I’ll help Amay Suu [Suu Kyi]. We believe in her. So, I’ll do what she told me to do.” The NLD party advocates a nonviolent movement towards multi-party democracy in Burma, which was under oppressive military rule from 1962 until March 2011, when a new military-dominated Parliament was formed after elections The party supports human rights – including broad-based freedom of speech – the rule of law, an end to fighting in ethnic areas and national reconciliation. The NLD party flag features a peacock, a prominent symbol in Burma. A dancing peacock was widely used in the flags of Burmese monarchies. The NLD peacock is now associated with a decades-long struggle against the military dictatorship in which hundreds of its members served terms in prison for their political activities. The party’s emblem, a traditional bamboo hat, will be replaced by a new emblem yet to announced. Burma: Arab Spring or Prague Spring? http://www.shanland.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=4231:burma-arab-spring-or-prague-spring&catid=85:politics&Itemid=266 Monday, 28 November 2011 16:55 S.H.A.N. Last October, the military-turned-civilian government bent its visa rules on blacklisted individuals and Harn Yawnghwe, head of the Brussels-based Euro Burma Office (EBO) that has been assisting activist groups struggling for democracy and ethnic rights was allowed to return to his home country after spending 48 years in exile. The trip coincided with a report by Financial Times on 25 November that had quoted him saying: “They have decided to change. It’s not what we called for, but there are changes. Even if they are pretending to change, we should push them so the change becomes irreversible. If we keep saying that ‘you haven’t change the way we want’ and put obstacles in the way, then the changes will never come.” What Harn said was interesting, as it parallels with what Sun Tzu (also spelled Sun Zi), the Chinese military maestro who flourished 2,500 years ago: Success in warfare is gained by carefully accommodating ourselves to the enemy’s purpose. The translator Lionel Guiles explains further: Ts’ao Kung says, “Feign stupidity” – by an appearance of yielding and falling in with the enemy’s wishes. Chang Yu’s note makes the meaning clear: The object is to make him remiss and contemptuous before we deliver our attack. Sun Tzu’s words could not have been more relevant. Since he took office at the end of March, ex-general Thein Sein who had been handpicked by the ageing but still all powerful Senior General Than Shwe to lead the new, “democratically-elected” government, had brought hopes (as well as suspicions) to his countrymen, both at home and abroad, and to the rest of the world. While believers say Thein Sein “is his own man,” non-believers disagree, saying, “How can he be? He’s not elected by the people like Obama was. He was on the contrary obviously appointed to play the old game with a new set of rules.” But believer or non-believer, one cannot help admit that Thein Sein has been saying and doing what we have been longing to hear and see – only just short of the required extent. For instance, his envoys have been busy negotiating peace talks with all the armed opposition groups since September, following the official “Invitation for Peace Talks” announced on 18 August, group by group or “groupwise” as the announcement says. Already most of the major armed movements have entered negotiations with: 3 of which signing peace agreements (United Wa State Army, National Democratic Alliance Army and Democratic Karen Buddhist Army) 2 more agreeing in principle to sign them (Shan State Army “South” and Chin National Front) 3 more agreeing to hold further talks (Karen National Union, Karenni National Progressive Party and Kachin National Organization) It is also holding talks with the Shan State Army “North” through the go-betweening of its former boss Gen Hso Ten, who was sentenced to 106 year imprisonment by Naypyitaw but released after serving 6 years. The only major group that has so far stayed out of the negotiations after the 6 October preliminary round in Ye is the New Mon State Party (NMSP), that is insisting that Naypyitaw talk to the non-Burman armed groups “collectivewise” and not “group-wise”. In addition, like the peace talks in 1989 held by its predecessor, the Thein Sein government is offering 3 things: But whereas the State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC) had promised ceasefire, development and “talk politics with the next government” which took almost 22 years to emerge, Thein Sein’s negotiators are assuring their opponents of ceasefire, development and “an inclusive conference in the style of Panglong, maybe even better than Panglong”. To the non-Burmans, especially Chin, Kachin and Shan, co-signatories together with Aung San Suu Kyi’s father Aung San of the 1947 Panglong Agreement, the words of U Aung Min, the President’s special representative on 19 November, were nothing less than honey. At least both the Kachin Independence Organization (KIO) and the Shan State Army (SSA) ‘South’ have declared that with the promises of Panglong – “Full autonomy in internal administration” and “rights and privileges which are fundamental in democratic countries” – fulfilled, there will be no need for them to continue their armed struggles. Indeed, if the SSA “South” had any reservations about agreeing to sign a ceasefire pact, the promise of another Panglong was the clincher. As a result, it is expected to attend a formal signing ceremony before the end of the year. However, despite the promising signs, many questions remain unanswered: Why are Burma Army bases, established along the border of Wa-Mongla territory after tensions in 2009, still there and being reinforced although the two sides have signed the ceasefire agreements? Why since Naypyitaw desires peace and is ready to hold peace talks with every armed movement, has it not declared a nationwide ceasefire instead? Why is it adamant on talking to them “groupwise” when doing it collectivewise makes more sense? Of course, according to President Thein Sein, the non-Burman ethnic groups have different aims and desires, which is only partly true, true for individual ethnic group issues, but when it comes to common issues, they have always stood together. Just take a cursory look back at the Panglong Conference (1947) and Taunggyi Seminar (1961), out of which emerged the following 5 point call: Burma Proper must be a constituent state like Chin, Kachin, Shan and others Equal power to the two Houses of Parliament Equal representation for each state in the Upper House Reservation of the following subjects for the Union government and the remaining subjects for the states: Foreign affairs, Defense, Finance, Coinage and paper currency, Posts and Telegraphs, Railways, Airways and Waterways, Union Judiciary and Sea Customs Duty Fair distribution of the revenue collected by the Union Government among the states The President and his advisors should therefore not be bent on talking to them groupwise if they are ready to speak to him collectivewise, just because of differences in minor individual preferences. All these and others beg the question why he isn’t going all the way, when his advisors insist he “is his own man.” Is it because he is afraid of Than Shwe returning to power, as hinted by some, or is he just following the Senior General’s dictate: more words but less deeds? Not that I’m suggetting that we have to wait until the conditions are ideal, because they will never be, if history has taught us anything. I’m only humbly counseling caution to leaders both at home and abroad, both national and foreign, not to put all the eggs in the same basket, when we are dealing with such a situation, at least when many things are still in the dark. Personally, I would prefer Thein Sein becoming another Aung San, the leader that consolidates what his predecessors have won by negotiations, to becoming Mikhail Gorbachev who lost everything they had achieved. Because, after all is said and done, what the people of Burma need is an Arab Spring and not a Prague Spring.